Cycle Thresholds
Technical Indicators • Price Action • Chart Signals
pivot points between market phases
Cycle thresholds are the energetic and structural transition zones that mark the end of one market phase and the beginning of another. These thresholds often align with time-based patterns (e.g. lunar cycles, equinoxes), macro timing (quarter ends, halving events), or psychological inflection points (peak fear or euphoria). Recognizing a cycle threshold allows traders to anticipate trend reversals, volatility releases, or capital rotations. These are not just price levels—they are *timing boundaries* within larger behavioral or energetic flows.
Use Case: A cycle-aware trader prepares for a market pivot around the fall equinox and September full moon—two known cycle thresholds that historically precede rotation out of Layer 1s into real-yield assets like $KAG or tokenized real estate opportunities.
Key Concepts:
- Temporal Pivots — Points in time that shift the market’s energetic direction
- Macro Transition Zones — Seasonal, lunar, or structural shifts between phases
- Psychological Bookends — Emotional exhaustion often marks threshold events
- Rotation Anchors — Capital tends to move through gates, not randomly
- Cycle Awareness — Understanding repeating psychological and price cycles
- Emotional Saturation — The psychological condition when sentiment reaches extreme levels
- Peak Sentiment Overload — The emotional tipping point before market reversal
- Capital Rotation — The cyclical movement of investment capital between asset classes
- Bitcoin Halving — A major structural threshold in the crypto cycle
- Expansion Phase — The growth period following a cycle threshold
- Contraction Phase — The decline period preceding a cycle threshold
Summary: Cycle thresholds help traders stop chasing and start preparing. They offer timing-based edges where trend exhaustion meets new phase opportunity—creating some of the most important decision windows in a macro-aware strategy.
Sentiment Meter — Emotional Range Tracker
psychological phases of market sentiment across cycles
Fear
Neutral
Greed
Extreme Greed
Types of Cycle Thresholds
timing boundaries that signal phase transitions
Cycle Threshold Preparation Checklist
how to prepare for phase transitions
☐ Lunar phase within ±3 days
☐ Seasonal marker approaching
☐ Quarter end rebalancing window
☐ Halving or protocol event near
☐ Major macro announcement scheduled
☐ Multiple thresholds clustering
☐ Fear & Greed at extremes
☐ Social media saturation visible
☐ Narrative exhaustion apparent
☐ Volume divergence forming
☐ Funding rates at extremes
☐ Emotional burnout in communities
☐ Extreme fear confirmed
☐ Price at major support
☐ Smart money loading visible
☐ DCA plan activated
☐ $KAG/$KAU reserves staged
☐ Long-term conviction strong
☐ Extreme greed confirmed
☐ Price extended from support
☐ Late money flooding in
☐ Exit targets pre-defined
☐ Rotate to hard assets ready
☐ Ledger holdings secured